Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

Learning Outcomes

Rate Peg Peg Peg

A currency peg is a country or government’s exchange-rate policy of attaching, or pegging, the central bank’s rate of exchange to another country’s currency. Also referred to as a fixed exchange rate or a pegged exchange rate, currency pegs stabilize the exchange rate between countries, which allows for accurate long-term predictability for business planning and can anchor rates at advantageous levels for large importers.

Countries commonly peg their currencies to the currencies of others, most often the U.S. dollar or the euro. Currency pegs add predictability between trading partners and can remain in place for decades, such as the linkage of the Hong Kong dollar to the U.S. dollar, which has remained steady since 1983; Denmark’s peg of the kroner to the euro since 1982 is another notable example.

Trading Economic Fundamentals Economic Fundamentals Economic Fundamentals

Monetary Policy Divergence

  • Trader should pair a currency (who’s central bank is bullish in his monetary policy) with a currency (who’s central bank is bearish in its monetary policy); then find the entry using technical analysis. 

Speeches By Central Bank Head/Governor

  • Divergence in Market Expectation & Central Bank view.
  • If Market expectation is bullish/bearish & Central bank turn out to be neutral, then trader should fade the priced in move.
  • If Market expectations are neutral while Central bank turn out to be Bullish/Bearish, then trader should trade the first pullback/retracement.
  • If Central Banks takes view as per market expectations, then trader should trade the first pullback/retracement.

Rate Peg Peg Peg

A currency peg is a country or government’s exchange-rate policy of attaching, or pegging, the central bank’s rate of exchange to another country’s currency. Also referred to as a fixed exchange rate or a pegged exchange rate, currency pegs stabilize the exchange rate between countries, which allows for accurate long-term predictability for business planning and can anchor rates at advantageous levels for large importers.

Countries commonly peg their currencies to the currencies of others, most often the U.S. dollar or the euro. Currency pegs add predictability between trading partners and can remain in place for decades, such as the linkage of the Hong Kong dollar to the U.S. dollar, which has remained steady since 1983; Denmark’s peg of the kroner to the euro since 1982 is another notable example.

Trading Economic Fundamentals Economic Fundamentals Economic Fundamentals

Monetary Policy Divergence

  • Trader should pair a currency (who’s central bank is bullish in his monetary policy) with a currency (who’s central bank is bearish in its monetary policy); then find the entry using technical analysis. 

Speeches By Central Bank Head/Governor

  • Divergence in Market Expectation & Central Bank view.
  • If Market expectation is bullish/bearish & Central bank turn out to be neutral, then trader should fade the priced in move.
  • If Market expectations are neutral while Central bank turn out to be Bullish/Bearish, then trader should trade the first pullback/retracement.
  • If Central Banks takes view as per market expectations, then trader should trade the first pullback/retracement.

Trading Economic Fundamentals Economic Fundamentals Economic Fundamentals

Figures Release / Scheduled Economic News

Figures aligned with Forecast/Central Bank’s view

  • If Forecast/Central Bank has bullish view & data release comes better than expected, then trade the first pullback.
  • If Forecast/Central Bank has bearish view & data release comes worst than expected, then trade the first pullback.

Figures divergence with Forecast/Central Bank’s view

  • If Forecast/Central Bank has bullish view & data release comes worst than expected, then find buying opportunity on dip.
  • If Forecast/Central Bank has bearish view & data release comes better than expected, then find the selling opportunity once rally fades away.

Trading Economic Fundamentals Economic Fundamentals Economic Fundamentals

Figures Release / Scheduled Economic News

Figures aligned with Forecast/Central Bank’s view

  • If Forecast/Central Bank has bullish view & data release comes better than expected, then trade the first pullback.
  • If Forecast/Central Bank has bearish view & data release comes worst than expected, then trade the first pullback.

Figures divergence with Forecast/Central Bank’s view

  • If Forecast/Central Bank has bullish view & data release comes worst than expected, then find buying opportunity on dip.
  • If Forecast/Central Bank has bearish view & data release comes better than expected, then find the selling opportunity once rally fades away.

Recommended Sources Sources Sources

  • The Trader’s Guide to Key Economic Indicators by Richard Yamarone (2004) Bloomberg Press, Princeton.
  • Jarratt Davis (Fundamental Expert)

Recommended Sources Sources Sources

  • The Trader’s Guide to Key Economic Indicators by Richard Yamarone (2004) Bloomberg Press, Princeton.
  • Jarratt Davis (Fundamental Expert)

Exercise

  • Go to www.centralbanknews.info & find any rate peg between two currencies.
  • Go to the websites of all major central banks FED, ECB, BOE, SNB, BOJ, RBA, RBNZ & BOC; and download & read the last monetary policy document. Determine the hawkish & dovish central banks & analyze its pair technically for opportunity.
  • Read & understand the summary of Central Banks governor speeches & their monetary policies.
  • Go to www.forexfactory.com/calendar Click on yellow folder of High Impact News. Read & understand whole description of news(e.g. FF Notes, Why Traders Care & Derived Via).
  • Go to Investopedia.com & learn about different economic indicators (e.g. CPI, PPI, PMI, GDP, Employment, Unemployment & other indicators).

Exercise

  • Go to www.centralbanknews.info & find any rate peg between two currencies.
  • Go to the websites of all major central banks FED, ECB, BOE, SNB, BOJ, RBA, RBNZ & BOC; and download & read the last monetary policy document. Determine the hawkish & dovish central banks & analyze its pair technically for opportunity.
  • Read & understand the summary of Central Banks governor speeches & their monetary policies.
  • Go to www.forexfactory.com/calendar Click on yellow folder of High Impact News. Read & understand whole description of news(e.g. FF Notes, Why Traders Care & Derived Via).
  • Go to Investopedia.com & learn about different economic indicators (e.g. CPI, PPI, PMI, GDP, Employment, Unemployment & other indicators).