Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis

Learning Outcomes

Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis Fundamental Analysis Fundamental Analysis

There are two major approaches to analyze the markets for trading:

 

Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis in an approach to anticipate the market directions by analyzing the trends & historical patterns using many different tools. Markets are repetitive in nature up to some extent, so these trends & historical patterns can be traded when they emerge.

 

Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental Analysis is an approach to anticipate the direction through careful study of current economical conditions of the countries in question by analyzing their Key Performance Economic Indicators released by different departments in different time frequencies.

Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis Fundamental Analysis Fundamental Analysis

There are two major approaches to analyze the markets for trading:

 Technical Analysis   Technical Analysis   Technical Analysis 

Technical Analysis in an approach to anticipate the market directions by analyzing the trends & historical patterns using many different tools. Markets are repetitive in nature up to some extent, so these trends & historical patterns can be traded when they emerge

Fundamental Analysis Fundamental Analysis Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental Analysis is an approach to anticipate the direction through careful study of current economical conditions of the countries in question by analyzing their Key Performance Economic Indicators released by different departments in different time frequencies.

Type of Market Conditions Market Conditions Market Conditions

Trending Markets

  • Up Trend
  • Down Trend

Non-Trending Markets

  • Ranging, Sideways or Consolidation
  • Volatile (no specific direction)

Type of Market Conditions Market Conditions Market Conditions

Trending Markets

  • Up Trend
  • Down Trend

Non-Trending Markets

  • Ranging, Sideways or Consolidation
  • Volatile (no specific direction)

How to Recognize  Recognize  Recognize  a Trend

  • General Direction
    Higher Highs / Higher Lows (Uptrend)
  • Lower High / Lower Lows (Downtrend)
  • Moving Averages

Uptrend with Higher Highs & Higher Lows Higher Lows Higher Lows

Type of Market Conditions Market Conditions Market Conditions

Trending Markets

  • Up Trend
  • Down Trend

Non-Trending Markets

  • Ranging, Sideways or Consolidation
  • Volatile (no specific direction)

How to Detect Detect Detect

How to Recognize Recognize Recognize a trend

  • General Direction
  • Higher Highs / Higher Lows (Uptrend)
  • Lower High / Lower Lows (Downtrend)
  • Moving Averages

Downtrend with Lower Highs & Lower Lows Lower Lows Lower Lows

Uptrend with Higher Highs & Higher Lows Higher Lows Higher Lows

How to Detect Detect Detect

How to Detect Detect Detect

How to Detect Detect Detect

How to Detect Detect Detect

Ranging, Sideways or Consolidation Consolidation Consolidation

Uptrend with Lower Highs & Lower Lows Lower Lows Lower Lows

Volatile Markets Markets Markets

How to Detect Detect Detect

 Moving Averages  Moving Averages  Moving Averages Alignment in Uptrend

Ranging, Sideways or Consolidation Consolidation Consolidation

 Moving Averages   Moving Averages   Moving Averages  Alignment in Downtrend

Volatile Markets Markets Markets

Ideal Market Conditions Market Conditions Market Conditions

Ideal markets conditions to trade are the trending markets because they are easier to identify & anticipate and make much more money than any other market conditions.

Ranging markets needs lot of experience to trade & required different strategies / methods than the trending markets.

Volatile markets are the toughest market conditions to trade, even for the trader who has vast experience. Its nearly impossible to make money in these market conditions.

Moving Averages Alignment in Uptrend

Support & Resistance Levels Resistance Levels Resistance Levels

They are the horizontal levels on charts, which are the most important part in Technical Analysis and included in almost every strategy or method. Support & Resistance levels in higher time frames are considered much stronger (harder to break) than the ones in lower time frames.

Support Level

It acts as floor to price. Price tends to bounce from it due to presence of heavy buy orders from different market participants. A support level is considered stronger if touch by price, three times. Once price breaks through, it becomes a resistance level.

Resistance Level

It acts as ceiling to price. Price tends to come off from it due to presence of heavy sell orders from different market participants. A resistance level is considered stronger if touch by price, three times. Once price breaks through, it becomes a support level.

Moving Averages Alignment in Downtrend Alignment in Downtrend Alignment in Downtrend

 Support Level  Support Level  Support Level

Ideal Market Conditions Conditions Conditions

Ideal markets conditions to trade are the trending markets because they are easier to identify & anticipate and make much more money than any other market conditions.

Ranging markets needs lot of experience to trade & required different strategies / methods than the trending markets.

Volatile markets are the toughest market conditions to trade, even for the trader who has vast experience. Its nearly impossible to make money in these market conditions.

 Resistance   Resistance   Resistance  Level

Support & Resistance Levels Resistance Levels Resistance Levels

They are the horizontal levels on charts, which are the most important part in Technical Analysis and included in almost every strategy or method. Support & Resistance levels in higher time frames are considered much stronger (harder to break) than the ones in lower time frames.

Support Level Support Level Support Level

It acts as floor to price. Price tends to bounce from it due to presence of heavy buy orders from different market participants. A support level is considered stronger if touch by price, three times. Once price breaks through, it becomes a resistance level.

Resistance Level

It acts as ceiling to price. Price tends to come off from it due to presence of heavy sell orders from different market participants. A resistance level is considered stronger if touch by price, three times. Once price breaks through, it becomes a support level.

Trend Lines & Trend Channels Trend Channels Trend Channels

Trend Line Trend Line Trend Line

Trendlines are considered diagonal support & resistance. They are used in conjunction with horizontal support & resistance levels to determine the confluence area where price has high probabilities to turn. Trendlines are drawn below the price action in Uptrend & above price action in Downtrend. Similar to horizontal support & resistance levels, three or more touches makes a strong trendline.

Trend Channels Trend Channels Trend Channels

Tend Channel is a diagonal channel followed by price. There is a separate tool in MT4 for Trend Channel so it should NOT be drawn with trendline tool. The general rule of application of this tool is first two lows & an intervening high in Uptrend and first two highs & an intervening low in Downtrend.

 Support Level  Support Level  Support Level

Trend Line in Uptrend in Uptrend in Uptrend

 Resistance Level  Resistance Level  Resistance Level

Trend Line in Downtrend in Downtrend in Downtrend

Trend Lines & Trend Channels Trend Channels Trend Channels

Trendlines Trendlines Trendlines

Trendlines are considered diagonal support & resistance. They are used in conjunction with horizontal support & resistance levels to determine the confluence area where price has high probabilities to turn. Trendlines are drawn below the price action in Uptrend & above price action in Downtrend. Similar to horizontal support & resistance levels, three or more touches makes a strong trendline.

Trend Channels Trend Channels Trend Channels

Tend Channel is a diagonal channel followed by price. There is a separate tool in MT4 for Trend Channel so it should NOT be drawn with trendline tool. The general rule of application of this tool is first two lows & an intervening high in Uptrend and first two highs & an intervening low in Downtrend.

Trend Channel in Uptrend in Uptrend in Uptrend

Trend line in Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend

Trend Channel in Downtrend in Downtrend in Downtrend

Trend line in Downtrend Downtrend Downtrend

Pullback/ Retracement /Counter - trend Movement

This is a short term move against the trend direction. It takes place when large player / market participants takes the profit on their trades. Amateur traders usually enter in the move when pullback or retracement starts which cost them money.

In order to make money, traders MUST wait for pullback or retracement in trending market, then look for confluence of different factors e.g.

Retest of EMAs
Break of Support & Resistance Levels Retesting Trendline or Trend Channel

Trend Channel in Uptrend Uptrend Uptrend

Pullback or Retracement / Counter-trend Movement Counter-trend Movement Counter-trend Movement

Trend Channel in Downtrend Downtrend Downtrend

Optimal Entry with Confluence Confluence Confluence

Pullback-Retracement Counter-trend Counter-trend  Counter-trend  Movement

This is a short term move against the trend direction. It takes place when large player / market participants takes the profit on their trades. Amateur traders usually enter in the move when pullback or retracement starts which cost them money.

In order to make money, traders MUST wait for pullback or retracement in trending market, then look for confluence of different factors e.g.

Retest of EMAs
Break of Support & Resistance Levels Retesting Trendline or Trend Channel

Exercise Exercise Exercise

  • Identify the different market conditions with Highs/Lows & Moving Averages.
  • Uptrend
  • Downtrend
  • Ranging
  • Volatile
  • Find the Support & Resistance Levels.
  • Find the Trend Lines.
  • Find the Trend Channels.
  • Spot the Pullback / Retracements in Trending Markets.
  • Identify a profitable entry fulfilling the taught criteria.

Pullback or Retracement  Pullback or Retracement  Pullback or Retracement  Counter - trend Movement

Optimal Entry with Confluence Confluence Confluence

Exercise

  • Identify the different market conditions with Highs/Lows & Moving Averages.
  • Uptrend
  • Downtrend
  • Ranging
  • Volatile
  • Find the Support & Resistance Levels.

  • Find the Trend Lines.
  • Find the Trend Channels.
  • Spot the Pullback / Retracements in Trending Markets.
  • Identify a profitable entry fulfilling the taught criteria.